TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,077 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed No73c1,296$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.261,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c1,105$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes36c788$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.681,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes57c694.69$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.974,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c413.86$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.125,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed Yes26c353.85$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ae…033dbacked Yes33c340.25$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.291330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes27c307.76$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3542036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No45c299.58$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.664,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c287.02$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes26c287$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.622,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes34c272.89$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0981558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c266.49$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.562,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes33c259.21$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.462,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c210.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes17c201.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.351,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c189$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.973,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No34c174.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4846232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No66c174.73$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5712466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c168.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.856,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked No59c168$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.263721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-58%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No23c158.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.382,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No17c151.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4649543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No9c142.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.031,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No67c140.91$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes22c140$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.84,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No43c130.55$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0388628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No75c115$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.753,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No53c106.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.011,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No53c105.98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2541752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No75c103$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9619071.6%136 W · 54 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No77c101.36$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.14,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.516220.4%33 W · 129 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes35c99.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.843,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes25c99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c89.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.95,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a1…6691backed No40c88.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.51933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes22c87.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.518,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No44c79.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9871057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8177…e5d4backed No75c79$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.988976.4%68 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No67c73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No68c71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4115966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes28c66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.281,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c64.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes60c60.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8881855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c58.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes28c56.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.657921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No67c56.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8463255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0554656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes53c54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes26c50.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.152446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes65c50.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.12,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.513636%49 W · 87 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x744f…caffbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58023.8%19 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58717.2%15 W · 72 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No21c49.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.261,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x694d…3ee2backed No74c48.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.453467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No76c48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7628368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No32c47.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.742,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40f…b287backed Yes35c46.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No45c44.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8911163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes42c44.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6326344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes36c44.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9338138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No51c42.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8691861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cdc…5bf7backed Yes47c42.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd73…3cc0backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86968.1%47 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed Yes64c39.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4919757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21a5…437ebacked No73c38.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.351369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No57c37.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9639956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ab…c964backed No55c35.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.15650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes48c35.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No46c35.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0356322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes65c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6757747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No58c34.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4379947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9e…5bdcbacked Yes80c34.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick73cpaid-38.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No75c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2543959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes40c32.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc18…d7c1backed Yes63c31.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes46c30.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e68…826bbacked No39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No66c29.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.951,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked No61c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.922817.9%5 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-69%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No67c27.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.084,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No60c25.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2816566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No46c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No44c24.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.752,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No66c23.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0128360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.