TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,800 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8ac…1d91backed Over54c296$160 inLost-$159.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…ef58backed Over54c255$138 inLost-$137.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec5…7603backed Over54c242$131 inLost-$130.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef93…9f0dbacked Over55c221.81$122 inLost-$1221650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd25…1712backed Over54c212$114 inLost-$114.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe187…dfbabacked Over54c203$110 inLost-$109.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c6…51d1backed Under46c199$92 inWon+$107.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46a5…d3b0backed Under46c192$88 inWon+$103.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e2…9ff0backed Under46c191$88 inWon+$103.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeed8…7b6ebacked Under46c140$64 inWon+$75.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa6b…9078backed Under46c133$61 inWon+$71.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce89…3b19backed Under46c119$55 inWon+$64.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6af2…c5b1backed Under46c118$54 inWon+$63.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccaa…3c26backed Under46c116$53 inWon+$62.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under45c105.65$48 inWon+$58.1135843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d3…bd58backed Over55c99.93$55 inLost-$553727%10 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa88…9ff5backed Under45c77.05$35 inWon+$42.381526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb557…7f28backed Under45c74.55$34 inWon+$411346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf833…9e29backed Under45c69.81$31 inWon+$38.41450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over58c19.72$11 inLost-$11.4488057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.