TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,228 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Under47c4,806$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,544.262,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over53c4,208$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.466,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under52c3,476$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.832,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under47c2,081$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.952,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.081,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over53c1,180$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.2952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over53c1,172$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.042,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c1,001$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Under41c613$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.7920838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over59c549$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.9143542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Over57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011159.5%66 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under52c479.35$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.093,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under37c402.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.374,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Under43c387.5$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8818553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764f…6b8abacked Over65c232.44$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.88540%34 W · 51 L-16.2wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-35.4%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Under47c200.04$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0212552%65 W · 60 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over59c169$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.711,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over58c131.42$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.753,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under38c120.64$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.034,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under45c118.79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.621,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under52c118.38$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8287744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd62…39eabacked Under38c88.05$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f95…b08bbacked Over56c81.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.413250%16 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x855c…fa95backed Under44c63.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.339051.1%46 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over33c53.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under47c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0953839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.081,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Over65c46.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012857.8%74 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Over65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2537959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under39c38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1862049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Under39c38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1832947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under50c34.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.053,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under50c32.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3145452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x484c…cfa5backed Over55c27.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Under50c26.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2827251.1%139 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Under45c25.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9996956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6daa…d0f9backed Over55c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1164651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e68…7477backed Over57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Over56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.