NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0576cc542e4c38695061b0c38c2b0217287b31359777613e6d3292bd76588811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,228 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 4,806$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.26 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 53c | 4,208$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 3,476$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.83 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 2,081$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.95 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 53c | 1,180$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.29 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 53c | 1,172$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.04 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 1,001$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 41c | 613$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.79 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 59c | 549$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.91 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 479.35$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 402.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.37 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Under | 43c | 387.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.88 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Over | 65c | 232.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -16.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 47c | 200.04$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 59c | 169$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 58c | 131.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 38c | 120.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 118.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 52c | 118.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd62…39eabacked Under | 38c | 88.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Over | 56c | 81.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Under | 44c | 63.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 33c | 53.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Over | 65c | 46.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 34.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 50c | 32.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…cfa5backed Over | 55c | 27.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 50c | 26.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 45c | 25.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…d0f9backed Over | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 212.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 213.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-20.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.