TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$229,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,328 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under45c48,316$21,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,415.54,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Over55c34,968$19,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,195.8716547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under48c24,960$11,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,014.921,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under47c21,456$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,455.6920948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Under47c16,587$7,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,816.4635744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Over52c16,353$8,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,503.860351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over52c15,491$8,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,014.984,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Under47c13,300$6,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,103.165251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c10,495$5,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,574.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.9921653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over53c9,585$5,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,080.0543542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Over56c8,194$4,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,588.8474748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over52c7,826$4,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,074.562,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over53c7,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over51c4,748$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,421.532653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Over53c4,471$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.871,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under48c3,789$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.3124744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c2,941$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.516,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Over49c2,547$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.891,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Over54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35016633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under45c2,204$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.4625248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Over49c1,407$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.439742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over54c1,343$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.672,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Over49c1,267$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.717850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over54c1,264$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.4822643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x536a…d21dbacked Under46c950$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under47c700$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.533,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Under44c455$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.821045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over54c415.82$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.353,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Over54c326.27$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1941947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under44c320$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.245646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Over54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Over53c244.16$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8522746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Over54c231.48$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12519054.7%104 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under45c203.63$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.721,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over55c198$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.91,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked Over55c188$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.427059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over53c183.02$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8564844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.878652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…c55abacked Over55c162.59$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.424557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under44c160$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.656547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8842853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Over54c157$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7830453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over53c132.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4291148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under47c115.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3762541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Over54c105.91$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2914053.6%75 W · 65 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under48c104.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.867248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under46c100.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.421,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.210349.5%51 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Under52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.158754%47 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Over54c93.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4522953.3%122 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbc…e924backed Over55c91.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Under47c87.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1225651.6%132 W · 124 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Over13c81.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.572751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.834047.1%160 W · 180 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Over54c78.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Over55c68.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.720838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed Under46c66.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.722147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over53c65.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5826756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Over54c58.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4431354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0f…e949backed Under46c53.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7610046%46 W · 54 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Under45c53.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3312159.5%72 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under47c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0953839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b21…05ecbacked Over56c53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.683033.3%10 W · 20 L-5.4wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under48c44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8823350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015041.3%62 W · 88 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf35…3fe7backed Over54c37.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.496653%35 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over54c37.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1992058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8df3…9d6bbacked Over54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe182…1d11backed Over54c33.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Over57c31.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840548.6%197 W · 208 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Under49c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8132747.4%155 W · 172 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under49c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8162049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Under49c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8127345.1%123 W · 150 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Under49c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8132947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…049abacked Over49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518054.4%98 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc467…4cc3backed Under44c29.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Over54c29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6627455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over50c27.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6383158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eec…89babacked Over54c23.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.723259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Under48c22.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.494751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Under47c22.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7110252%53 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked Over54c20.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1619659.7%117 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa028…0031backed Over54c19.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4830654.6%167 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.