TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$899,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $899,708 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Raptors51c505,905$258,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247,893.8787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Mavericks49c496,555$243,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243,311.9587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Mavericks49c100,000$49,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,999.9540446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…f88ebacked Raptors54c32,757$17,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,221.472646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Raptors52c22,058$11,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,591.589655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raptors51c20,261$10,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,935.52,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Raptors51c19,608$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,608.0616640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Mavericks49c19,602$9,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,604.9730845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks49c18,326$8,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,981.254,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Raptors51c15,959$8,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,819.7956646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Raptors51c14,111$7,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,954.732,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Raptors51c13,303$6,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,518.391,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors50c12,885$6,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,383.854,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Raptors51c12,435$6,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,092.961,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors51c11,346$5,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,565.594,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Mavericks49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9209343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors51c7,283$3,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Raptors51c7,267$3,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,560.832,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Mavericks49c7,000$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,429.9943348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors51c6,869$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,365.811,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Raptors51c6,000$3,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,954.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Raptors51c5,814$2,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,850.383,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Mavericks50c5,740$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,87065750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Raptors51c5,047$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.8229352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks49c4,330$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.914,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Mavericks49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Mavericks48c3,774$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.3948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors50c3,570$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Mavericks47c3,283$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.2112045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks48c2,662$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.216,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Mavericks49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9964944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Raptors51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.781,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks46c1,859$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8552,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Mavericks49c1,829$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.981,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks46c1,800$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8283,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Mavericks49c1,747$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.35843.1%25 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks49c1,624$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.953,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks6c1,381$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.83,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd2b…4090backed Raptors55c1,273$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.735364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Mavericks50c1,250$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.7514244.4%63 W · 79 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Mavericks50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Mavericks50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60027746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks49c1,175$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.892,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Mavericks49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9924050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Mavericks49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49080737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Raptors51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4908754%47 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Mavericks47c842.62$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.0311243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Raptors50c709$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.520051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Mavericks49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29449345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Mavericks48c599.98$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9922746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Mavericks50c594.01$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.3520838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Raptors55c545.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.821,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Mavericks50c526.36$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1836045%162 W · 198 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Mavericks50c522.87$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.4422643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks48c445.37$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.382,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Mavericks47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Mavericks49c411$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.391,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked Mavericks49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020650%103 W · 103 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Mavericks49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Raptors52c404$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.9219645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Mavericks50c400.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024946.6%116 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Raptors51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.166155.7%34 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Mavericks52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c17…0458backed Raptors51c363.31$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.0217153.2%91 W · 80 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Mavericks49c347.9$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4755846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Raptors53c325$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7528751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Raptors51c323.89$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.512,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Raptors52c310.47$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.366058.3%35 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Mavericks48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14491148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Raptors52c291.68$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.423,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Raptors51c271.63$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8913151.1%67 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Raptors52c230.77$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7726048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Raptors53c201$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.475754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Mavericks50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10051451.9%267 W · 247 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked Raptors51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Mavericks50c199.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Mavericks49c196.08$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.081,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9325…adafbacked Raptors51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0811754.7%64 W · 53 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Raptors51c196$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0414144.7%63 W · 78 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Mavericks50c194.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3223144.2%102 W · 129 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Mavericks47c173.81$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6936748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c77…55a4backed Mavericks51c166$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.663548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7608…92e2backed Raptors50c166$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Raptors51c147.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.371,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Raptors58c137.93$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9346346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Mavericks46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6091846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Raptors51c127$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.231,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Mavericks50c126.31$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1676552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Raptors50c120.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks45c120.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.341,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Raptors51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.659550.5%48 W · 47 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Raptors52c114.44$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3445452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Raptors54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1139552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Mavericks49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Mavericks50c100.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedde…7753backed Mavericks50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506550.8%33 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca7…0c48backed Raptors51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.032142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Raptors55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9161056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.