TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,566 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over57c3,827$2,181 inLost-$2,181.3943542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c2,441$1,126 inWon+$1,315.389,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over52c2,407$1,257 inLost-$1,257.44,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c2,160$1,022 inWon+$1,138.556,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under43c1,574$670 inWon+$904.344,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over53c507.74$271 inLost-$271.0284150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over59c460.1$270 inLost-$270.242,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Under41c426.47$174 inWon+$252.5620838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under43c373.43$161 inWon+$212.854,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under46c324.18$149 inWon+$175.062,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over53c309.59$164 inLost-$163.623,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ff2…6714backed Over54c306.32$165 inLost-$165.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d0…2b50backed Under46c153.16$70 inWon+$82.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e87…4536backed Under46c153.16$70 inWon+$82.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Under47c131.57$62 inWon+$69.7876552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Under50c100$50 inWon+$5012552%65 W · 60 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under43c83.75$36 inWon+$47.743,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b6…3eeebacked Under50c66.36$33 inWon+$33.183046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under43c66$28 inWon+$37.6246447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c60.83$30 inWon+$31.022,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under47c53$25 inWon+$28.0953839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Under46c43.65$20 inWon+$23.6524150.2%121 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under50c40.78$20 inWon+$20.331,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over63c40$25 inLost-$25.290357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over54c39.12$21 inLost-$211,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Under41c37$15 inWon+$21.8332947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over44c35.7$16 inLost-$15.531,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under40c34.01$14 inWon+$20.411,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under46c30$14 inWon+$16.23,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over62c30$19 inLost-$18.61,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under45c28.97$13 inWon+$15.8564844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under49c22$11 inWon+$11.2223350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Over69c17.85$12 inLost-$12.3214456.3%81 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.