Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x492d6eec0909e294f9c9d162b749ef85cb7ec68b146a650015f4d4ea297bef99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 19c | 851.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 13c | 659.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 536.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 16c | 531$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 496.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 424.04$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 23c | 362.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 273.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 14c | 265.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 24c | 255$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 228.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 228.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 226.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 9c | 226$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 21c | 220.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 172.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 172.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 14c | 153.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 26c | 152.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 133.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 77c | 122$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 109.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 104.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 20c | 100.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…a7b9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 23c | 89.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 12c | 83.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 19c | 79.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 74.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 74.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 31c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 57.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 52.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 73c | 41.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 40.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 28.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 27.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 21.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 14.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.