Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4936f5d2ae405c23d1858eb91b2849fb5e02a2afb7cc3d285698daa801e40ef9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e5f…d53dbacked No | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…e3c5backed No | 16c | 3,319$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…5157backed No | 20c | 3,150$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…a4a9backed Yes | 80c | 3,055$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 2,464$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…8974backed No | 18c | 1,600$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 55c | 644.58$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.62 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…519fbacked Yes | 3c | 498.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 404.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.45 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 75c | 377.43$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 47c | 377.12$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.72 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 48c | 334.31$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked No | 72c | 319.89$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…5548backed Yes | 76c | 270.8$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 78c | 268.05$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.36 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 260.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…7034backed Yes | 21c | 241.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 16c | 224.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.64 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 53c | 218.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 75c | 218$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.9 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 25c | 204.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…f46fbacked Yes | 73c | 196$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 17c | 186.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.34 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed No | 37c | 184.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 18c | 150$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…eb88backed Yes | 73c | 148.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 141.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 79c | 124.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…2c54backed Yes | 49c | 122.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 109$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 52c | 105.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 30c | 98.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…623bbacked No | 31c | 97.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 27c | 95.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a4…1dc4backed Yes | 73c | 88.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 74c | 87.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 72c | 85.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 82.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 64c | 76.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 20c | 73.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…a9d9backed No | 23c | 68.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 36c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 37c | 66.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 61.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 51c | 59.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 77c | 58.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3729…f7c3backed Yes | 77c | 57.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 56.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 22c | 56.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 40c | 52.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 76c | 52.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 45c | 50.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 48c | 50.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…2d22backed Yes | 76c | 50.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c8…0824backed Yes | 71c | 49.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 25c | 48.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 52c | 46.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…d2dfbacked Yes | 45c | 46.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…cd8abacked No | 29c | 45.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…20d4backed Yes | 62c | 41.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes | 79c | 41.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1634backed Yes | 79c | 39.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 46c | 39.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…4372backed No | 78c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4e1cbacked Yes | 75c | 38.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 56c | 37.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 75c | 37.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0880…5ac5backed No | 31c | 36.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +207.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Yes | 58c | 35.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…4f42backed Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…c077backed Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…5851backed No | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…7a88backed Yes | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…0164backed Yes | 76c | 32.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab8…c3b0backed Yes | 58c | 29.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 53c | 29.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed Yes | 61c | 29.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4080…ae8ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3c…44aebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.