Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4995fc3c97e8fab1fc279c0afdabe33f0cf06a1178e425007c303e4951fd07dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 64c | 1,706$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.38 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 1,303$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 46c | 983.8$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.73 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 32c | 964.25$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.11 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 12c | 919.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.39 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 912.19$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 15c | 758.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 34c | 705.4$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.11 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 32c | 655.59$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.2 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 22c | 610.14$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 43c | 506.7$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.96 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked No | 6c | 499.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 476.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 422.92$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 407.72$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 393.5$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.67 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 47c | 364.4$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.39 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 349.8$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 10c | 345.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.01 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 268.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 48c | 241.83$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 229.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 19c | 206.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 23c | 202.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 183$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 61c | 180.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 63c | 155.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes | 51c | 152.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 147.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.91 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 142$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 140.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 138.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 13c | 133.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.72 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 40c | 124.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 60c | 109.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 59c | 106.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes | 45c | 105.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 11c | 104.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 100.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 100.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 76c | 99.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 94.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 30c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 13c | 83.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 33c | 82.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 81.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 81.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 52c | 75.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 73.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…c7edbacked Yes | 40c | 71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 66c | 68.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 70c | 52.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 43c | 51.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 37c | 49.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 44.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 30c | 44.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 58c | 41.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 39.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 64c | 37.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…13babacked Yes | 59c | 34.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 50c | 28.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 40c | 28.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 23.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…d0a7backed Yes | 46c | 21.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 61c | 21.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…fc55backed Yes | 58c | 18.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a96…4007backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.