TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,226 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf787…1b63backed Yes21c1,073$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c602.59$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.375,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes32c595$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.984,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes50c560.34$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes52c516.83$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.8622746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c437$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.683,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x840a…63ccbacked Yes39c425.78$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x493b…c7edbacked Yes6c425.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.021540%6 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes51c415.7$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes50c361.15$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5673927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c349.8$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.365,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes16c300$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c299.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No65c245.13$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.21,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes48c215.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.041,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c212.18$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes28c209.65$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.71,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bb…1b2fbacked Yes52c192.86$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.091330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No55c191.14$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.916,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes51c174.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.644247.6%20 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes36c171.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.431,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No69c161.58$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes11c159.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.764,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes11c149.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.491,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes24c144.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3411343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c140.92$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.563,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…8b39backed Yes11c140.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+74.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No75c140.08$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.788650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes7c140$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes43c137.21$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.429835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No49c133.4$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.628737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes42c124.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.71435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes12c121$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3144757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x88ce…d898backed Yes49c120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.153,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No67c117.15$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.121,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c108.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No62c106.52$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c101.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4917555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb460…6424backed Yes12c97.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.653053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5a…bc49backed No51c96.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.345549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes31c96.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5410640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c93.64$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.384,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked Yes38c93.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9314954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No44c91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.684546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No52c90.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0131219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4de2…978ebacked Yes51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.91637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes47c89.68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2940741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No42c88.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.054647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No47c81.56$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.961,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes34c81.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.234738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No53c80.7$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.065,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes19c78.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.052,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes28c76.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4425049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes16c66.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes25c64.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3343441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No51c63.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.243,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No61c60.64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.631,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.32,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.614043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes49c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.623241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c57.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.342,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes24c57.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5524434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No60c56.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6565625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No47c56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes42c54.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.713,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d0…1845backed No48c54.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.232161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed No46c51.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed No65c50.02$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5213051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed No52c50.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.269625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2624046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.334934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No46c45.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.426448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a2…e90abacked Yes24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes45c44.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes42c44.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No51c44.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed No50c43.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7111249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes54c42.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c40.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f9…e151backed Yes66c40.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No48c38.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.299536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c38.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes47c38.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes46c37.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4524442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46c8…695abacked Yes51c37.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No52c37.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.932,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd702…2087backed Yes36c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.974052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea43…13babacked Yes54c35.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.911136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No74c34.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.923,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No52c34.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.582,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes43c33.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.561,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No65c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.481,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.