Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2615a929195967a85c75ca300c4bfefb89831ec14cb5b9c3b6a6f8f760757eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 21c | 1,073$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.35 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 602.59$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 595$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 560.34$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 516.83$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.86 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 437$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 39c | 425.78$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…c7edbacked Yes | 6c | 425.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 51c | 415.7$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 50c | 361.15$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.56 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 349.8$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 245.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 48c | 215.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 212.18$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 209.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 191.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 51c | 174.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 171.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 161.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 11c | 159.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 149.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 24c | 144.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 140.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 11c | 140.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 140.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 137.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 49c | 133.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes | 42c | 124.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 12c | 121$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…d898backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 117.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 108.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 62c | 106.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 101.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 12c | 97.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 51c | 96.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 31c | 96.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 93.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 38c | 93.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 44c | 91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 52c | 90.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 47c | 89.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 42c | 88.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 47c | 81.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 34c | 81.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 80.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 19c | 78.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 28c | 76.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes | 16c | 66.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 25c | 64.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 63.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 60.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 57.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 24c | 57.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 60c | 56.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 54.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d0…1845backed No | 48c | 54.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed No | 46c | 51.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 65c | 50.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 52c | 50.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 46c | 45.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…e90abacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 42c | 44.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 51c | 44.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed No | 50c | 43.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 42.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 40.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed Yes | 66c | 40.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 48c | 38.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 38.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 47c | 38.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 46c | 37.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…695abacked Yes | 51c | 37.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 52c | 37.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…13babacked Yes | 54c | 35.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 34.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 34.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 43c | 33.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.