Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49a897ad558a9bcd85763f0817f45d2a00b1d46027f79abd708619d87d349e45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 17c | 521$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 302.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 270.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 8c | 249.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 66c | 205.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 173.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 32c | 169.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 14c | 151.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 32c | 144.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 33c | 134.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 130.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 75c | 130.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 120.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 14c | 119.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 119.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 118.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 112.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 15c | 100.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 99.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 98.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 96.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 30c | 93.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 92.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 90.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 83.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 24c | 80.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 62c | 80.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 24c | 79.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 76.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 75.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 25c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 70.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 30c | 63.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 31c | 63.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes | 27c | 62.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 31c | 60.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 56.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 28c | 53.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7679…4c76backed Yes | 38c | 49.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 48.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Yes | 29c | 47.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 62c | 47.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 62c | 46.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…a4e4backed Yes | 30c | 46.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 45.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 32c | 43.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 41.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 39.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked Yes | 29c | 38.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 78c | 37.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 78c | 35.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 33.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 31.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 73c | 28.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 28.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 71c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 25.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 77c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 41c | 24.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 23.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 72c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.