Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40b50cc8a3299633450bc125f09f3e30bb8437c1b09f7717abf4a6ad76651cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 4c | 1,035$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 6c | 499.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 381.27$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 69c | 279.65$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 248.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 52c | 229.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 31c | 222.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 13c | 219$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 47c | 189.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 169.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 159.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 151.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 131.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 43c | 130.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 125.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 48c | 118.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 53c | 107.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 50c | 107.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 105.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 103.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 100.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked No | 16c | 99.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 49c | 97.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 95.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…a4e4backed Yes | 57c | 91.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 42c | 91.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 89.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…339ebacked Yes | 57c | 83.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 69.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 45c | 69.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 34c | 62.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 61.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 47c | 61.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 60.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 59.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 61c | 55.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 53.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 44c | 51.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 25c | 49.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 43c | 48.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 46.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 47c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 42.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 30c | 41.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69e2…3ba7backed No | 52c | 39.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 43c | 38.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 38c | 38.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…4e59backed No | 59c | 38.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 73c | 36.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 35.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…b3d3backed Yes | 50c | 34.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 34.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 49c | 33.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 32.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 31.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 41c | 30.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 53c | 27.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 75c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 78c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 62c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 53c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa443…5b07backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 61c | 19.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 75c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Yes | 73c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.