Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49e0bc2d92fd5118263bb3968c679cb8e236c6912d899b48b3925f26ed9ee209
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 49c | 996.69$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.55 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 77c | 703.95$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.82 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 458.52$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.86 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 62c | 453.47$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.07 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 60c | 443.81$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.13 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 396.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 63c | 307.66$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.67 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 305.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 34c | 273.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.87 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 259.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 51c | 195.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 33c | 189.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 167.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 142$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 140.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 130.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 70c | 129.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…275cbacked No | 47c | 120.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 44c | 119.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 119.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 105.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 103.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 97.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 76.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 45c | 76.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 48c | 57.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 53c | 55.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 55c | 54.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 42.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 53c | 37.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 73c | 32.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 65c | 22.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30af…2c34backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 51c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 57c | 17.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 70c | 17.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 6?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.