TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,477 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99bc…4f35backed No12c906.84$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.882,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182a…f847backed Yes76c443.21$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7718762.6%117 W · 70 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c423.21$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.994,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c374.9$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.485,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes62c303.01$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.823,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes44c292.52$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2727328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c275.09$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.088,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No37c147.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No21c141$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.525,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes27c136.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.914,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes38c132.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.873455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes54c129.53$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.92454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes31c115.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.683240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c115.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.636,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No73c113.07$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c111.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.318142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c105.02$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No62c101.61$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6344058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No30c100.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.751,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.454,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3644…5313backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+61.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9919022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98f8…394dbacked Yes32c99.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.994835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No69c96$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7847866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c89.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8162…afc3backed Yes75c87.76$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No62c84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes37c80.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5612849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No54c72.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No58c72.58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c70.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes63c68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.416,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No20c67.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.592,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58b…bea2backed Yes22c66.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No43c63.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2417747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes39c62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8222550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8473…5511backed Yes30c57.21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.049128.6%26 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c56.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.659,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c53.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes34c53.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4716937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf440…7ab4backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes34c49.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.638830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed No27c47.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5829219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes33c46.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes59c44.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes33c44.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.952828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No67c44.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.982,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes38c39.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5212334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c38.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.739,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes31c36.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4387437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No68c33.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9430849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb23…10edbacked No67c33.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.351656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1441…0b51backed Yes39c33.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.262133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5347569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No76c30.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.961,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No41c30.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.391,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes35c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed No64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0513452.2%70 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No66c29.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6642754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c29.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.894,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c28.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.415,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No67c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7312174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No68c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes65c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No66c22.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8346549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x165f…d7c0backed Yes58c21.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.222733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4361249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No69c20.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.481,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ff…aa59backed Yes68c20.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes77c20.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf82a…7c35backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x606d…89e6backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.95669.6%39 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No71c18.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.472,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a9…dcf5backed No65c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.486556.9%37 W · 28 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No68c15.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.741,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No66c15.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.262275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.