Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aebdcf958aebf03cf271a0d03b4fe7c91ec71b377f4e202d31661ad96021275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 77c | 902.59$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 887.44$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 17c | 660$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.22 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 482.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 392.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 363.3$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 22c | 309.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 33c | 298.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed Yes | 18c | 283.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 76c | 259.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 257.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 78c | 247.58$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 24c | 231.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 77c | 199.81$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed No | 72c | 185.88$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 179.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 163.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 161.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 53c | 159.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 157$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 10c | 147.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 143.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 141.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes | 23c | 139.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 25c | 137.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 126.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 122.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 119$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 22c | 102.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 102.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 18c | 100.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…023bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…f729backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 98.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 93.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 11c | 90.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 87.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 30c | 83.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 22c | 82.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 18c | 75.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 22c | 74.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 66.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 20c | 62.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 28c | 60.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 58.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 58.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 23c | 57.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 26c | 56.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 35c | 56.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 54.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 78c | 51.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…d5babacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 47.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 77c | 45.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes | 40c | 45.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 35.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 33.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 77c | 33.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 32.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 25.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…2239backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 70c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c6…a8b5backed Yes | 52c | 19.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 73c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 73c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 75c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.