TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,267 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4266…ffacbacked No77c902.59$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.072161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes14c887.44$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.728,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes17c660$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2227129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes20c482.56$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.862,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c392.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.677,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c363.3$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.215,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes22c309.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6937417.4%65 W · 309 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes33c298.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8792…4174backed Yes18c283.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.614953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No76c259.08$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8434748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes11c257.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.462,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed No78c247.58$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4311459.6%68 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes24c231.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0637942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bed…bf63backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346048.3%29 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed No77c199.81$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0211041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed No72c185.88$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No52c179.77$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.914,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No45c163.47$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.322,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes16c161.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.581,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes53c159.58$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6986952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c157$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.295,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes10c147.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes27c143.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.761,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes16c141.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.614,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes23c139.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.631225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes25c137.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9720445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes19c126.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes47c122.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.652,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No78c119$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1847866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes22c102.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3845540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes10c102.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes18c100.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2322350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98f8…394dbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2c…023bbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb1…f729backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c98.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.349,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No79c93.03$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes11c90.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3130333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No70c87.32$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2899961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes30c83.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1423668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd37f…28bebacked Yes22c82.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.314440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes18c75.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.636633.3%22 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes13c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes22c74.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5454656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c66.64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.994,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe35…57c3backed Yes20c62.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810430.8%32 W · 72 L-16.9wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes28c60.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0440352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No70c58.54$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c58.51$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.513,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6674…7efbbacked Yes23c57.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.064233.3%14 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes26c56.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x348f…8378backed Yes35c56.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.444751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7516937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No68c54.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.292,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No78c51.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3221472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e27…d5babacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes23c49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2729748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes25c47.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.183,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8162…afc3backed No77c45.68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.353971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes40c45.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-46%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.352828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.938830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No66c35.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.772,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No65c33.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.852,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked No77c33.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5830665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No78c32.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2937669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No78c32.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.323,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No70c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7212174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c25.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.211,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b67…2239backed No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.35366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No66c22.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5822550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.553855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.348261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No70c19.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7625766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1c6…a8b5backed Yes52c19.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2347175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No73c15.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2444567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No73c15.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2428866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No75c15.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9258358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No70c15.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.71,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No76c15.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.642,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.054,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.61,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ebb…9ed8backed No75c14.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.631376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x427a…4e18backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.57229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.