Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf68b529e5fbffb3646f3c4e76b95b9a4e1fb347e1ffb7c5e832e4a69edcd2b94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,396$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 31c | 962.99$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.01 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 18c | 653.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 22c | 488.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 375.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 374.9$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 30c | 363.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 313.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 307.75$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 28c | 248.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 13c | 239.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 71c | 210.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 206.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 5c | 186.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 10c | 177.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 176.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 36c | 166$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 15c | 161.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 138.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 138.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 131.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 125.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 20c | 122.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 119.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 33c | 116$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 109.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e75…f89ebacked Yes | 17c | 107.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 14c | 99.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 23c | 97.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 18c | 86.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 24c | 84.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 80.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 14c | 77.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 16c | 77.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 66.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 61.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 22c | 61.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 54.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 52.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 51.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…e810backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 21c | 47.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 45.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 30c | 44.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 27c | 44.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 28c | 40.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 34c | 39.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 32.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 30.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 30.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 67c | 24.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 75c | 19.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 18.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed No | 73c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 17.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 73c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 79c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 74c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.