South American Leagues · resolved market

CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a58fe7c605bc89edcb2c5b0fd8e1931ed21afeeafb8031603ae3ad59a917988

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $68,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,659 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb6ee…0bd0backed Under	52c	25,000$12,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,924.33	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed Over	49c	20,405$10,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,364.69	294	46.6%137 W · 157 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Over	48c	12,529$5,981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,548.68	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Under	50c	5,125$2,563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,562.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under	53c	3,615$1,916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,915.95	429	62.2%267 W · 162 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under	53c	3,594$1,910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,910	110	55.5%61 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	52c	3,588$1,858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,857.81	1,296	43%557 W · 739 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	49c	3,558$1,735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,822.89	5,762	45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L	+94.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	45c	3,041$1,382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,659.26	8,112	48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L	+27.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	48c	2,938$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,527.69	507	46.7%237 W · 270 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	49c	2,371$1,152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,218.41	3,407	51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L	+21.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cc0…b7e9backed Under	50c	1,800$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over	50c	1,500$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	41	63.4%26 W · 15 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under	54c	1,387$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.15	220	49.1%108 W · 112 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	48c	1,242$594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$648.19	1,985	44.8%890 W · 1,095 L	-44.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Under	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	230	57.4%132 W · 98 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	49c	801.84$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.94	1,231	53.9%663 W · 568 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	57c	769.23$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	85	56.5%48 W · 37 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	50c	630$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	60c	557.48$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.01	1,070	47.4%507 W · 563 L	-46.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2905…28e6backed Under	50c	408.4$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7647…bcfbbacked Under	27c	370.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	50c	302.93$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.46	571	57.8%330 W · 241 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	50c	302.93$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.46	477	56%267 W · 210 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over	48c	300$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over	49c	202.04$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.04	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	48c	200.13$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.28	2,173	43.6%948 W · 1,225 L	-55.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	317	45.1%143 W · 174 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under	50c	193.64$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.82	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Under	50c	186$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	48c	182.37$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.07	2,614	54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L	+25.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	54c	179.82$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.48	636	57.5%366 W · 270 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	55c	169.54$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.47	477	58.1%277 W · 200 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	48c	159.98$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.66	1,282	53.7%689 W · 593 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	52c	159.86$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.94	2,388	51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5746…06cfbacked Over	48c	150.77$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.85	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over	41c	146.19$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.43	193	56%108 W · 85 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98bd…5e41backed Over	49c	113.08$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.67	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…20bfbacked Under	54c	111.39$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f9e…4c57backed Over	36c	105.56$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.56	74	20.3%15 W · 59 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	196	59.7%117 W · 79 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea3d…2e9dbacked Under	50c	96$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Over	48c	90.42$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.02	332	66.3%220 W · 112 L	+24.8wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	57c	75.88$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.41	261	60.9%159 W · 102 L	+20.4wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under	58c	74.74$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.04	449	59%265 W · 184 L	+22.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe00b…256fbacked Under	59c	67.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Over	46c	65.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.41	74	60.8%45 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43c7…d727backed Over	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	73c	56.5$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.25	1,328	57%757 W · 571 L	+57.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Over	49c	55$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.27	213	59.6%127 W · 86 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775f…c82dbacked Over	51c	55$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.95	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	359	58.8%211 W · 148 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Over	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	110	59.1%65 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a1…3a92backed Over	41c	48.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.78	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	60cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	57c	47.46$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	724	50.6%366 W · 358 L	-24.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Under	53c	47.16$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x239d…daebbacked Under	54c	43.73$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.61	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	46c	43.73$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.61	85	54.1%46 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdba8…5d91backed Over	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+79.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf804…8758backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Under	50c	39.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	258	64.3%166 W · 92 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb253…26febacked Under	56c	35.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	51	62.7%32 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under	57c	34.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	388	61.3%238 W · 150 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Over	50c	33.6$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	71	62%44 W · 27 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf75b…ed74backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.18	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f5…8314backed Under	57c	29.78$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-5.6wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Under	53c	28.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under	51c	26.68$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	118	61.9%73 W · 45 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d90…3bbdbacked Over	51c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.87	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-5.1wins	-0.16per pick	63cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3654…04fbbacked Over	48c	25.75$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.41	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bfe…0741backed Under	50c	22.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c9…a454backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffb…a60ebacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5this page
CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)CF América won
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)CF América won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

CF América vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event