TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Ducks vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Ducks, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,850
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,850 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Lightning63c61,496$38,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,753.659340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Ducks37c44,779$16,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,568.0521652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Ducks37c35,000$12,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,95042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Lightning63c21,371$13,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,907.4414538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lightning64c15,156$9,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,456.0341246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning63c8,995$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.1570547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning62c8,978$5,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,411.4988151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Ducks38c8,853$3,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3643354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Ducks39c7,666$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.758841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning79c7,480$5,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.341,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Ducks38c6,553$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.0848050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ducks37c6,500$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,38589547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Ducks37c5,859$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,167.7986649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.961,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lightning65c4,786$3,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.1857453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Ducks37c4,688$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,712.2430551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Lightning62c3,225$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.4919451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd547…8a9fbacked Ducks8c3,125$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Ducks37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11075251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Ducks39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1701330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50ff…2037backed Lightning63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1102937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Lightning63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.973946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Ducks36c2,845$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.5315646.2%72 W · 84 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Ducks36c2,515$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.4837847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning62c2,312$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.4463249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Lightning61c2,244$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.385464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa05b…a94fbacked Lightning65c2,054$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.943661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Lightning63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74097651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Ducks37c1,679$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.5745149.4%223 W · 228 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Lightning75c1,594$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.5313655.1%75 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec9…2c29backed Ducks38c1,323$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a30…b575backed Lightning63c1,300$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4811233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24b1…5163backed Ducks36c1,300$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4681957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa359…e803backed Ducks8c1,269$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Ducks25c1,016$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.095745.6%26 W · 31 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Ducks36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Lightning63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37035349.6%175 W · 178 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Ducks32c999.82$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.6531257.4%179 W · 133 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Ducks17c929.87$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9182043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Ducks35c851.99$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.230447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Ducks35c774$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.915448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Ducks39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006833.8%23 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Ducks35c764.17$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.61,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Ducks37c729.73$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27012548%60 W · 65 L-15.6wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning63c724$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.581,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Ducks41c719.46$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9840550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…a1e9backed Ducks7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506233.9%21 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Ducks35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24551044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Lightning63c700$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2593644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Ducks29c699.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning67c662.8$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.871,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Ducks4c662.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.311,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Ducks35c588.86$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.119942.7%85 W · 114 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Ducks34c564.83$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Ducks37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Ducks37c501$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.371,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning63c464.7$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.941,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Lightning63c443.2$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.9762249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Lightning67c433.08$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14533848.8%165 W · 173 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Ducks50c402.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ducks41c400.33$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.353,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1208…1feabacked Lightning64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1444045%18 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab9…b93dbacked Ducks25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fdc…efadbacked Ducks12c368$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.64911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-81.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Lightning63c333$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2149546.5%230 W · 265 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0774…99febacked Ducks37c324.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Lightning63c300$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11218750.3%94 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe060…c21cbacked Ducks36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Lightning64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10868449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Ducks7c299.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.518931.2%59 W · 130 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Ducks36c290.87$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7110050%50 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Ducks37c290$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.330848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Ducks36c280$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.820446.6%95 W · 109 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Ducks36c279.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7974951.8%388 W · 361 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Ducks36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Ducks37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005141.2%21 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Ducks37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0111…0463backed Ducks37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023140.3%93 W · 138 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf4…9a1abacked Ducks37c267.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1335…d00fbacked Ducks38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5e…2d04backed Lightning76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.161050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb85…84a6backed Ducks37c261.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Ducks8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…5a55backed Ducks40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007243.1%31 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed Lightning65c231.34$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.343534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4db1…4adcbacked Lightning64c225$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b6…4eddbacked Ducks37c209.43$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.496936.2%25 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Lightning64c209.38$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.385653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Ducks37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7423741.4%98 W · 139 L-14.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Ducks35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7043944.6%196 W · 243 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12cb…cc16backed Ducks18c199.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.95248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-79.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x790d…9995backed Ducks25c181.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.421546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Ducks38c157.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551a…b3dcbacked Ducks38c157.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Lightning63c157.14$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1412649.2%62 W · 64 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9999…9868backed Lightning77c155.84$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.843357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Lightning64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5421255.7%118 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1277…13d8backed Ducks36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a9…a074backed Lightning65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.