Olympics · resolved market
Will Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b3d980edbf6bd887aa4106b4fcde8b8ab79dc8c0a1c3b3fcb6e51737544dcea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed No | 47c | 5,828$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,732.57 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 64c | 3,936$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.47 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 50c | 2,421$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.55 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed No | 47c | 1,856$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 51c | 1,549$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.38 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 53c | 1,110$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 44c | 893.16$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.99 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed Yes | 50c | 780$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 51c | 750$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 57c | 715.81$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.58 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed Yes | 52c | 701.2$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed No | 30c | 677.59$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Yes | 52c | 655.19$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a1…8f8dbacked No | 52c | 576.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 51c | 555$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked No | 47c | 426.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes | 52c | 399.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 54c | 389.64$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.79 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 52c | 374.54$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…9a39backed No | 48c | 344.68$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Yes | 60c | 333.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 51c | 307$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf88…fcb0backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…5533backed No | 45c | 219.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…8fb7backed Yes | 56c | 212.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed No | 47c | 208.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ce1ebacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…4fa8backed No | 49c | 177$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 130.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a48…497ebacked Yes | 50c | 117.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed No | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bc…4b40backed Yes | 68c | 103.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 29c | 87.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 44c | 83.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 31c | 81.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…e484backed No | 48c | 80.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed Yes | 54c | 75.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…772abacked Yes | 71c | 70.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 48c | 69.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…8aefbacked No | 47c | 67.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked No | 50c | 66.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 63.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…f54fbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac82…1647backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…220cbacked Yes | 69c | 59.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 60c | 58.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…2602backed No | 34c | 50.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 55c | 50.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…037cbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…8cf9backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 52c | 45.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…264ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa513…74bfbacked Yes | 55c | 36.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…f433backed No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…4a2abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…566bbacked Yes | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…d582backed Yes | 67c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Camille Rast (SUI) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Paula Moltzan (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Zrinka Ljutic (CRO) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.