TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes53c725.37$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.2160236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes36c597.88$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21725933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c472.09$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.355,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes6c399.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.818328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No65c395.7$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.351,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes37c338.22$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3343932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No48c334.08$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes24c272.35$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x876e…6824backed Yes27c262$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No47c243.41$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6917025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No61c212.55$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.311,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97d8…0a12backed No69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes54c195.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.971,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes38c177.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6381558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No64c171$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.282,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No47c170.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.219,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes52c165.64$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4425261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c162.35$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.694,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes37c162.26$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.528847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No60c158.38$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0777151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No49c155.76$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.784,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c147.88$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c146.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No60c141.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No70c140.77$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.755,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No46c126.96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.531,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes41c126.66$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.440337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes53c124.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.721,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No58c122.91$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2360121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes48c122.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7819252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes16c112.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.131,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6394…485fbacked Yes55c103.64$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes44c101.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.328142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285969.5%41 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5434831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ef…e466backed Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8189…a808backed Yes39c96.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No75c94.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.651,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No49c89.58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.55,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes36c89.01$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0485049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No67c86.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.492,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c84.32$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.184,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No51c83.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4280560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No73c80.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.883366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes31c78.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.163043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed No46c76.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0931836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes52c76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.85967.8%40 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes33c69.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.142555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes34c64.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215940.3%64 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No75c61.12$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.52,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No72c56.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No68c55.88$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.762,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed Yes54c55.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9313350.4%67 W · 66 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes41c53.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.664,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes54c50.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No51c48.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.992,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes33c47.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.782,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes51c47.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.181,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes53c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.911,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes51c46.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4754656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No48c45.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6417859%105 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No71c42.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes48c42.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3128546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No74c41.34$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.632,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.051,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0662275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed No51c38.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.778261%50 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No59c37.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.474,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No76c37.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No48c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7215062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes53c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0847866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb218…6261backed Yes32c35.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.446850%34 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdd…77a4backed No47c35.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c33.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed No71c32.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3718045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes33c31.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2434935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No49c30.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.815966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf1…7cb7backed No48c29.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.449169.2%63 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked Yes44c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7616935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No79c28.84$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.082,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156240.3%25 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes45c26.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed Yes52c26.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.469176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.124141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed No73c24.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.663551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No78c24.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.353,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked No49c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2428344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No67c21.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.232,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdeb…0b98backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.439543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.163,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.419956.3%112 W · 87 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.812758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No57c19.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.