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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7353…b6c5backed No5c2,040$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022148.4%107 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No11c654.13$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8945836.5%167 W · 291 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No48c589.93$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.264,62247.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L-182.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No40c453.22$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.421,80455.9%1,009 W · 795 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes45c444.56$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.5660936.8%224 W · 385 L-1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No7c443.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.561,00551.8%521 W · 484 L+108.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes35c434.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.1769946.1%322 W · 377 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No60c402$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.261521.1%130 W · 485 L-27.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c393.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.981,86837.7%705 W · 1,163 L+282.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes40c363$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.88,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes37c313.75$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4460461.1%369 W · 235 L+29.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c283.66$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.416,11149.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L-116.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed No13c260.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1821131.8%67 W · 144 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c259.03$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.344,43565.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L+18.7wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c258.71$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9212,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes40c229$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.560533.4%202 W · 403 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No49c216.8$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.61,61752.1%843 W · 774 L-43.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No16c210.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.811,51515.4%234 W · 1,281 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes69c206.89$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.885,54247.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L+81.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No62c176.4$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.621,61161.8%995 W · 616 L+17.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes59c175.95$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9925656.3%144 W · 112 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No44c155.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692,15559.6%1,285 W · 870 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes64c155.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5811252.7%59 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes67c152.29$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3388855.7%495 W · 393 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14db…7cafbacked Yes66c151.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.674940.8%20 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf733…297dbacked No18c148.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3220411.8%24 W · 180 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c146.11$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.843,78265.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L+32.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes36c132.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9310,84837.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L+432.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c126.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.285,20149.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L-161.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes38c125.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8122860.1%137 W · 91 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No10c122.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5752143.6%227 W · 294 L+30.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed No41c120.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023237.5%87 W · 145 L+30.6wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+79.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes64c120$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433,98047.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87c8…e0a9backed No43c109.28$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.51915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-66.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes65c109.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.786460.9%39 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes57c104.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.159,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed No42c104.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7714355.9%80 W · 63 L+14.0wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No44c103.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.312,23056.9%1,269 W · 961 L+64.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3318045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.829442.2%124 W · 170 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes58c99.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4250846.1%234 W · 274 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No50c94.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.54,37753.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L-17.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes38c90.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5624355.1%134 W · 109 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No33c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.73,04633.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L+12.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes59c89.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.645530.1%137 W · 318 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No47c89.65$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0646944.6%209 W · 260 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7220252%105 W · 97 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…d647backed Yes60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c82.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.426,85753.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L+417.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8189…a808backed Yes37c81.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.23447.1%16 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.23,82161.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No41c79.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.043,68633.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L-190.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No59c79.16$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9187860.6%532 W · 346 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes38c77.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.082,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No42c73.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4255951.3%287 W · 272 L+54.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.565,47856%3,069 W · 2,409 L-123.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No35c72.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52,26757.4%1,301 W · 966 L+72.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes41c70.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7919046.3%88 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No19c70.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2916448.8%80 W · 84 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No56c60.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.91,27953.9%690 W · 589 L-27.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.844048.6%214 W · 226 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023155.8%129 W · 102 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc31f…f04abacked Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308482.1%69 W · 15 L+16.5wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+40%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x430b…f9e0backed No42c57.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.251050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes35c54.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1412530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No62c54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5813761.3%84 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No65c52.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.341,25358.2%729 W · 524 L-3.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.521940.6%89 W · 130 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No43c46.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028150.9%143 W · 138 L+24.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No63c45.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8223458.1%136 W · 98 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No48c45.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6429241.1%120 W · 172 L+25.3wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes52c43.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.761,17840.6%478 W · 700 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes46c43.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.187341.1%30 W · 43 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes53c41.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4618340.4%74 W · 109 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No52c39.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.552,26058.3%1,318 W · 942 L+85.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c37.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.371,18650.8%603 W · 583 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed No64c37.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9911339.8%45 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes38c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4742645.1%192 W · 234 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No30c35.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84,90553.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L+33.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4865838.8%255 W · 403 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea34…33bcbacked Yes39c33.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.316460.9%39 W · 25 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No53c30.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9632446.3%150 W · 174 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.66,85439.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L+266.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No65c28.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7255558.7%326 W · 229 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No39c27.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531,40630.9%435 W · 971 L-93.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3215447.4%73 W · 81 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No50c25.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8119336.3%70 W · 123 L-38.0wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8688…27fbbacked Yes58c25.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.764245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fdd…77a4backed No66c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1585…5839backed Yes59c24.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.179459.6%56 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes55c21.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8128142%118 W · 163 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes62c20.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.055,16168.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L+71.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.74,61658.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L-114.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ee…724cbacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9787…83e8backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.878557.8%454 W · 331 L+1.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd219…0412backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.