Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc31115e1a60d1c13ff0472d51237c83c53d9b8bba413db7cb7f97a5a8dcd76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 1,470$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 602.83$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 311.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 292.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 234$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 209.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 190.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 189.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 175$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 35c | 170.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 162.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 139.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 48c | 130.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce51…8d4cbacked Yes | 38c | 114.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 112.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 108.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 108.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…24f0backed Yes | 38c | 105.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed Yes | 38c | 105.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 104.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed No | 68c | 102.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 41c | 101.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 35c | 93.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 90.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 89.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 35c | 82.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 80.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…15f9backed Yes | 38c | 72.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 69.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 69.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 67.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 51c | 67.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 58.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 51.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 67c | 50.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 28c | 47.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 46.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 45.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 45.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…8819backed No | 74c | 44.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 42.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 40.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 39.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 38.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 36.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 36c | 34.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 37c | 33.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 33.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 30.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 62c | 28.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 62c | 24.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 54c | 18.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…dc92backed No | 69c | 18.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.