Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c15468ab7edf835b74a09b9d214c5d949dd81d5dfb8e924969fd702803e1924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 48c | 2,087$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.03 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,747$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.87 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 52c | 1,158$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.98 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 58c | 921.75$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.95 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 709.52$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.35 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 571.2$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 548.98$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 450.43$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 382.97$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 362.1$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 359.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 340.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 48c | 326.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.47 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…eb84backed Yes | 71c | 268.74$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 256.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 254$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 236.12$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 50c | 235.39$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 231$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 219.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 216$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 52c | 214.96$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 63c | 213.93$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 49c | 200.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 57c | 174.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 172.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 160.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 34c | 148.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 54c | 147.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 53c | 138.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 136.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 52c | 134.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 130$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 128.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 51c | 116$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 112.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 41c | 110.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 108.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 105.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 100.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 100.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 56c | 97.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 54c | 92.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 81.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 58c | 79.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 50c | 79.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 77.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 76.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 72.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 31c | 68.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 25c | 63.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 61.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 59.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 59.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 58c | 59.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed No | 54c | 58.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 44c | 57.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 54.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 51.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 60c | 49.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 40c | 48.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 47c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 54c | 46.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 46.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 49c | 45.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 35c | 45.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 69c | 43.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 43.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 43c | 41.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 57c | 41.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 39.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 68c | 37.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 52c | 36.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 36.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.