Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c81299d9d313b9c161f02692baedbae01ece11b3a69d2d4fd4afbd4394bd15a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 36c | 972.98$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.58 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 29c | 940.57$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.66 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 886.7$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.24 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 876.21$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 67c | 872.8$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.02 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 539.21$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 525.04$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 66c | 430.3$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 78c | 291.67$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 59c | 286.48$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 261.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 249.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 249.89$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 244.84$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…eb84backed Yes | 27c | 240.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 215.57$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 205.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 194.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 63c | 186.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 185.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 184.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 175.24$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 169.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 161.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 36c | 160.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 67c | 159.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 158.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 157.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 73c | 156.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 154.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 152$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 151.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 11c | 150.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 66c | 140.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…1218backed Yes | 21c | 116.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 108.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 107.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 95.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 65c | 93.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 39c | 89.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 33c | 89.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 88.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 48c | 83.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 71c | 80.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 29c | 76.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 75.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 33c | 74.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 72.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 71.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 71.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 35c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 69.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Yes | 35c | 67.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 66.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 26c | 65.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 64c | 64.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 30c | 64.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 70c | 62.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 35c | 57.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 56.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 19c | 54.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed No | 75c | 49.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 73c | 49.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 24c | 49.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 48.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 47.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 47.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 49c | 46.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 44.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 31c | 43.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 38.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 74c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 69c | 35.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 76c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 33c | 34.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 30.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 35c | 30.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.