Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c16534235d98c989c85263defa1caeb0b53e859f4b36660318b3eb9531d2df1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 30c | 930.36$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.11 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…cdf1backed Under | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 31c | 505.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Under | 69c | 491.14$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 487 | 42.3%206 W · 281 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Under | 64c | 374.68$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 65c | 363.85$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 35c | 217$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9592backed Under | 70c | 216.83$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 66c | 212.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Under | 66c | 164.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Under | 68c | 161.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…57dbbacked Over | 31c | 161.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 36c | 160.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 32c | 118$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 224 | 52.7%118 W · 106 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 108.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 2,311 | 39.4%910 W · 1,401 L | -83.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Over | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…7a19backed Over | 50c | 60.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Over | 34c | 57.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Over | 45c | 56.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 35c | 50.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 402 | 31.3%126 W · 276 L | -28.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…d4a1backed Over | 31c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 42.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 43c | 41.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Under | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…ce62backed Over | 48c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 401 | 43.9%176 W · 225 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Under | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Under | 52c | 29.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 470 | 47.4%223 W · 247 L | +24.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 57c | 23.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,971 | 30.5%601 W · 1,370 L | -170.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5)JD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerJD Gaming won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.