South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c4b3081b3a1779aaa24344ab3dbf828258605869d0ba47de20e0bcb7c44ea3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 14c | 1,522$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.55 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 1,249$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.03 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 1,063$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.96 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 78c | 451$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 21c | 411.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 77c | 411$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Yes | 22c | 324.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 290.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed No | 73c | 209.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 67c | 163.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032b…a500backed Yes | 31c | 157.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…1d2abacked Yes | 27c | 149.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 24c | 131.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…b824backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 122$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 34c | 103.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 29c | 97.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 71c | 87.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed No | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…6c0bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 65c | 76.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 66.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 28c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…51d1backed Yes | 29c | 52.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 46.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 26c | 46.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 32.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked No | 65c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 65c | 22.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed No | 75c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-01-10?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-01-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.