Asian League · resolved market
Will Henan FC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c8d34e69d82cb91852371b232bf955f3d2e172fa34c452388ffb7e9ce0305e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 22c | 3,200$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 2,830$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.12 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 2,262$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.98 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 21c | 1,009$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 26c | 999.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 25c | 553$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 448.82$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 25c | 427.49$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 419.99$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 395.05$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 66c | 370.3$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Yes | 11c | 355.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Yes | 41c | 343.83$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 271.96$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 259.03$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 4c | 246.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9299…8f9cbacked Yes | 8c | 243.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 44c | 242.95$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 221.12$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 75c | 213.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 24c | 204.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Yes | 12c | 148.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 146.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 193 | 54.4%105 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…d4a1backed Yes | 28c | 103.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed No | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 23c | 99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 56c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 74c | 71.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 63 | 82.5%52 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 25c | 58.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 63c | 57.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 30c | 55.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 62c | 53.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 26c | 53.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 77c | 47.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 74c | 45.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 24c | 44.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 40c | 40.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 76c | 40.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 42c | 35.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…573bbacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 80c | 32.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c95…b1afbacked Yes | 42c | 28.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 75c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…54aebacked No | 74c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…66f3backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 76c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Henan FC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.