MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdfe2690f480225915495a9822840b832b34eb4dab92ae6dddf78930371a1c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 64c | 9,483$6,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,054.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 36c | 7,928$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,073.66 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 1,815$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.58 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 36c | 1,397$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.04 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 661.74$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.84 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 615.33$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.66 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 470.58$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 35c | 426.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 37c | 388.4$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.8 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 40c | 288.11$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.44 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under | 65c | 276.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 41c | 245.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 235.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 32c | 197.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 41c | 192.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 185.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 77c | 179.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 160.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 154.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 25c | 132.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 114$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 112.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 97.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 71c | 72.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 23c | 52.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 31c | 44.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 30c | 44.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 31c | 43.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…4933backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 43c | 39.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 31.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed Under | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…4943backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Under | 68c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 76c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 76c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.