MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c736453512496f2a82dd8ae58a948c72af8b100da3f771438c9ff94db4c7ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 13,672$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 79c | 6,126$4,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 3,136$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 2,086$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 1,700$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 1,420$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.53 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Boston Red Sox | 67c | 1,300$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 1,186$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.38 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,177$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.66 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…3881backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 898.81$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 857.63$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 807$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 682.47$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.77 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 637.12$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 620$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 604.85$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.27 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 14c | 388.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 383.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 304.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 179.39$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 171.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 143$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 129$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 128$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 128$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Cleveland Guardians | 9c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…ca73backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 113.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 108$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 106$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 94.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 92.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 88.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 86.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 85.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 82.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 67.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 55.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 51.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 43.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 42.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 40.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 33.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 28.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…a3e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 28.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 26.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…9d69backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.