MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x271986ceaf920fa16ddf4e838a11b0d499d3eedc0be17c6d9be9196fb3acc19f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 43c | 21,331$9,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,134.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 8,938$5,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,922.22 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 4,269$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 2,568$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.66 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 57c | 1,750$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 56c | 1,607$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.14 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 1,294$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 57c | 1,240$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 64c | 1,207$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 35c | 1,190$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.82 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 57c | 1,169$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.6 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 44c | 1,148$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.01 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 1,137$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 72c | 1,130$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.33 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 825$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.69 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 61c | 813.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 61c | 800$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 800$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 657.35$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 385.08$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Over | 54c | 367.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.8 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 33c | 348.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 72c | 346.9$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 295.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under | 77c | 259.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 203.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 52c | 167.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 29c | 166.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…cba0backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…416dbacked Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 57c | 118$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 14c | 114.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 46c | 109.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 64c | 102$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 58c | 96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 37c | 94.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 23c | 88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 53c | 76.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 65.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 61c | 58.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 59c | 50.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 34c | 41.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 35c | 39.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 57c | 37.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Under | 56c | 35.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 43c | 28.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 42c | 27.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 53c | 24.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 45c | 23.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.