MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Athletics

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce69cef644968be7cfb29559ca8f784eabf7870b81c221f6ba1b90b5f7657fb

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Athleticsof Reds, Athletics
Resolved: Sep 14, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $114,608
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,608 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Reds	51c	56,909$29,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,022.47	380	43.4%165 W · 215 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Athletics	49c	40,471$19,831 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,640.44	1,328	51.4%682 W · 646 L	+25.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa983…46a3backed Reds	79c	27,720$21,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,800	113	45.1%51 W · 62 L	-16.4wins	-0.14per pick	60cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Athletics	24c	14,005$3,353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,652.02	1,530	50.5%772 W · 758 L	+20.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Athletics	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,100	302	55.6%168 W · 134 L	+14.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Athletics	29c	8,033$2,304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,729.38	2,274	43.2%983 W · 1,291 L	+43.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics	32c	5,146$1,651 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,494.58	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Athletics	49c	3,665$1,793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,872.27	2,470	52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L	+17.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Reds	61c	3,278$2,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,002	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Athletics	32c	3,264$1,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,222.68	218	47.7%104 W · 114 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb8…74b8backed Athletics	49c	2,800$1,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,427.99	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3890…39e3backed Reds	51c	2,590$1,321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,320.9	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Athletics	49c	2,256$1,105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,150.54	731	49.4%361 W · 370 L	+23.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Reds	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	282	58.5%165 W · 117 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Athletics	50c	1,900$950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$950	631	52.6%332 W · 299 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Reds	76c	1,707$1,296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,296.36	91	35.2%32 W · 59 L	-12.0wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Athletics	32c	1,663$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,134.75	577	44.7%258 W · 319 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Reds	49c	1,332$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.92	1,097	50.1%550 W · 547 L	+5.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Reds	50c	1,227$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.32	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Athletics	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	401	52.4%210 W · 191 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0364…f19bbacked Athletics	37c	1,000$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$630	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Athletics	50c	900.08$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.02	3,291	46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L	+20.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Athletics	38c	885.39$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$547.52	764	56%428 W · 336 L	+32.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Athletics	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	1,293	46.6%603 W · 690 L	+14.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9d38backed Athletics	51c	748$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.67	170	45.3%77 W · 93 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Reds	11c	744.07$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1,180	7.2%85 W · 1,095 L	-13.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed Athletics	26c	608.61$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.6	76	42.1%32 W · 44 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2816…c811backed Reds	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Reds	15c	578$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.43	1,381	48.1%664 W · 717 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Reds	51c	483.49$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.58	129	49.6%64 W · 65 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5da…d89ebacked Athletics	22c	454.55$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.55	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Athletics	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	378	57.4%217 W · 161 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Reds	65c	400$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258	519	53.2%276 W · 243 L	-24.2wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Reds	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	104	51%53 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Reds	14c	352.47$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	575	45.9%264 W · 311 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Athletics	15c	336$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.6	452	48.2%218 W · 234 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Athletics	37c	270$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.1	1,213	40.5%491 W · 722 L	-32.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Reds	7c	210$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	961	33.9%326 W · 635 L	-38.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Athletics	49c	204$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.04	313	47.9%150 W · 163 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Reds	38c	191.37$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.72	513	34.5%177 W · 336 L	-31.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Athletics	69c	188.52$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.38	959	30%288 W · 671 L	-24.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Reds	51c	186.27$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	999	51%509 W · 490 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Athletics	61c	183.62$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.53	600	52.2%313 W · 287 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Reds	50c	182.01$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.01	359	52.4%188 W · 171 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Athletics	50c	159.99$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.8	255	48.6%124 W · 131 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Reds	79c	158.33$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics	50c	151$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.5	2,045	53.8%1,100 W · 945 L	+32.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Athletics	51c	147.06$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.06	401	44.1%177 W · 224 L	-17.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Reds	38c	143$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.34	477	45.7%218 W · 259 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Athletics	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	149	49%73 W · 76 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35af…44f3backed Reds	50c	116.27$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	61cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Reds	60c	115$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa9…7a30backed Athletics	51c	105$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.45	243	46.1%112 W · 131 L	-7.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Athletics	20c	100$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	457	32.2%147 W · 310 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ed…04cbbacked Athletics	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	78	57.7%45 W · 33 L	+4.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3713…14e8backed Athletics	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Reds	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,299	56.7%737 W · 562 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42a2…9bbabacked Athletics	66c	83.89$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.84	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-8.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d93…8dfabacked Reds	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Athletics	20c	75$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	382	45.5%174 W · 208 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics	35c	71.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.49	4,169	50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Athletics	52c	67.31$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	132	49.2%65 W · 67 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Athletics	50c	52$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	695	47.5%330 W · 365 L	-16.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd287…7485backed Athletics	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	543	52.3%284 W · 259 L	+27.4wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6360…c981backed Athletics	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	252	55.6%140 W · 112 L	+11.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x799f…c6b6backed Reds	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	92	52.2%48 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x095c…889bbacked Reds	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac1…5f0fbacked Athletics	50c	45$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	342	57.6%197 W · 145 L	+25.6wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdad3…7044backed Reds	52c	44.23$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54dc…7238backed Reds	51c	41.18$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1080…b86ebacked Reds	51c	41.18$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	110	54.5%60 W · 50 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4020…466dbacked Athletics	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	100	52%52 W · 48 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf28a…bcd4backed Reds	51c	35.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe88c…2f53backed Athletics	50c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	258	57%147 W · 111 L	+14.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0958…78fdbacked Reds	52c	34.62$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-5.0wins	-0.24per pick	53cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x383b…c4febacked Reds	52c	32.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3212…1f37backed Reds	52c	30.77$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Athletics	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	426	51.2%218 W · 208 L	+20.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e34…d38bbacked Athletics	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	239	57.7%138 W · 101 L	+14.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf002…047fbacked Reds	67c	29.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	168	51.8%87 W · 81 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce86…c816backed Reds	52c	28.94$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb31d…e535backed Reds	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dcd…70ddbacked Reds	52c	26.92$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-4.2wins	-0.16per pick	55cpaid	-31%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1181…509abacked Athletics	49c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.26	171	46.2%79 W · 92 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d21…b038backed Reds	79c	25.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f8…826abacked Reds	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64fa…380fbacked Reds	52c	23.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-27%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35ef…b238backed Reds	51c	21.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be9…8cd1backed Reds	52c	21.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Athletics	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b2…8d2ebacked Athletics	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Reds	74c	19.23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Reds vs. Athleticsthis page
Reds vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Reds vs. Athletics

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event