NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d27f1120f2c51074508ff377fb67e6c3f86193faba865e1401424ff89611804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 12c | 1,459$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 27c | 1,408$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.76 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc8backed Under | 54c | 927.56$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…d4eabacked Under | 57c | 759.04$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…e95fbacked Over | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 74c | 459.32$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 71c | 427.74$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.69 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 73c | 408.28$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 59c | 313.5$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.29 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…6a47backed Over | 74c | 243.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 41c | 238.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 224.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 41c | 204$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 198.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 73c | 193.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 73c | 167$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 76c | 157$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Under | 28c | 154.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Under | 42c | 102$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 39c | 100.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Under | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 26c | 80.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Over | 73c | 78.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 73c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 37c | 73.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Over | 45c | 59.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…e71abacked Under | 61c | 56.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Under | 40c | 46.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 32c | 44.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 54c | 35.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Over | 64c | 29.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 73c | 28.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 53c | 21.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 49c | 21.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.