Mls · resolved market
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-07-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3b8b0cfad46fc18b359cbe2dab58cee42696cda7ada693ef91085529440d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 11c | 3,932$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.56 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 2,981$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.58 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 78c | 2,595$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.35 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 2,478$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.87 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 2,397$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.3 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 2,229$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.36 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 21c | 2,159$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.42 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,985$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 21c | 1,800$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.84 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,272$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.09 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…91e1backed Yes | 7c | 899.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 20c | 816.46$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 804.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 6c | 545.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 11c | 467.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bc…31fbbacked No | 76c | 434.47$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 77c | 317.66$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 293.72$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…22c6backed Yes | 5c | 283.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…60b9backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed No | 79c | 202.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Yes | 16c | 184$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b3…3b3fbacked No | 79c | 179.75$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed Yes | 8c | 163$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 10c | 151$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 13c | 150.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 20c | 109.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 14c | 92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…105dbacked Yes | 22c | 86.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 81.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95a…6b78backed Yes | 21c | 69.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65f…134ebacked Yes | 21c | 69.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 21c | 62.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 20c | 55.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…0821backed Yes | 22c | 52.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed No | 78c | 51.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 79cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked No | 79c | 48.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 79c | 43.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…7220backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-07-22?this page
- Will Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?No won
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.