Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db44e7653c0b62df20e67eab37ac1e16b75345f6b05c774548b346906f360ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 65c | 7,692$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,692.31 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 35c | 3,033$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.44 | 731 | 51.7%378 W · 353 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 35c | 2,478$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.13 | 671 | 45.6%306 W · 365 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 2,311$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.24 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 35c | 1,702$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.61 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 34c | 1,395$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.28 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 35c | 1,250$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 341 | 46%157 W · 184 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 35c | 1,250$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 433 | 45%195 W · 238 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…0bacbacked Yes | 63c | 1,183$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 13c | 1,133$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed No | 46c | 940.92$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.94 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 35c | 936.87$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 26c | 820.3$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.29 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 52c | 775.1$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.75 | 310 | 45.2%140 W · 170 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 28c | 508.5$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 37c | 373.63$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 1,108 | 50.5%560 W · 548 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 326.31$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 5c | 303.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 50c | 194.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 37c | 171.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 63c | 169.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 38c | 137.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…f3c8backed Yes | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…9bcfbacked Yes | 65c | 103.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 501 | 43.5%218 W · 283 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 149 | 26.8%40 W · 109 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked No | 27c | 78.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb18…6f32backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed No | 50c | 74.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…3cd6backed Yes | 65c | 65.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Yes | 62c | 59.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72e…7c3bbacked Yes | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +141%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 25c | 40.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e25…afd6backed Yes | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed No | 50c | 34.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Yes | 62c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?this page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Draw at halftime?No won
- VfB Stuttgart leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.