AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db83acc9fc77c1d17a2a5b8678332d71bd9446f4254ccff7f3035886cc2d2f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 26c | 754.49$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.48 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +9.8wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 8c | 377.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 367.7$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.86 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 18c | 365.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 18c | 343.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 4c | 321.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 292$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 238.12$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 196 | 31.6%62 W · 134 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 209.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 50c | 189.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 14c | 165.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 9c | 162.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 8c | 133.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 27c | 130.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 126.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 122.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d32…0457backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 75c | 105.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…86d1backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 93.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 15c | 84.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…2fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 78.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +184.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 21c | 69.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 734 | 35.6%261 W · 473 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 50c | 47.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 50c | 47.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…576abacked No | 45c | 25.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?this page
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.