AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b8f59b65d8ff68bd34c588ab611b8579115c834c7616dcedcf212a4ab79e91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 8c | 5,858$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,366.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 77c | 3,344$2,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,572.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 5c | 2,504$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 7c | 1,329$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 1,313$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.73 | 297 | 30.6%91 W · 206 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,234$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 259 | 0%0 W · 259 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 34c | 1,187$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.52 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 1,179$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.56 | 461 | 38.8%179 W · 282 L | -32.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…60b1backed Yes | 21c | 769.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 652.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 218 | 13.3%29 W · 189 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 24c | 544.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.64 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…6780backed Yes | 80c | 527.04$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…d80dbacked Yes | 79c | 484.07$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes | 76c | 429.03$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 376.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.9 | 201 | 18.9%38 W · 163 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 55c | 343$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5603…7a24backed Yes | 13c | 319.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 285$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 266.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.84 | 303 | 27.4%83 W · 220 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 10c | 246.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed Yes | 15c | 212.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…cd4dbacked No | 10c | 178.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 172.44$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 20c | 144.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed No | 20c | 131.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +155.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce4…0fe6backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d32…0457backed Yes | 66c | 125$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 11c | 118$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2183…46e9backed Yes | 73c | 110.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 95.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…8460backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 39c | 56.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 35c | 56.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd51…6a52backed No | 26c | 45.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +290.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93f…3925backed Yes | 79c | 41.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…83e1backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…852abacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0755…4b83backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 32c | 36.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…c36abacked Yes | 79c | 23.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -87%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…14c7backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf866…00d3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?this page
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.