TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Aurora, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$195,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,180 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora53c21,111$11,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,188.8340051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,60042650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Aurora34c9,597$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30010751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora46c7,126$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.681,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Falcons61c5,549$3,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.8920159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Aurora49c5,048$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,46622842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Aurora48c4,652$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.7425446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons65c3,645$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.991,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora38c3,491$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.662,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Aurora34c3,347$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1508048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora46c3,297$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50043344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora26c2,471$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons61c2,228$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.821,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Aurora28c2,210$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.3945750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons64c2,000$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.141,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons72c1,784$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.0389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Falcons64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons66c1,401$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.811,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons67c1,278$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.941,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Aurora40c1,244$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Falcons50c1,170$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58537945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Falcons61c1,079$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.1847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Aurora54c1,015$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons54c999.98$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons50c986.81$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.1577256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Falcons58c950$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Aurora54c920.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Falcons47c900$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.516541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora7c899.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Falcons73c893.64$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.4232756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Falcons59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.466354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed Team Falcons62c788.46$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.876544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons50c769.61$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.611,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Falcons70c750$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Falcons75c750$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Aurora15c725.82$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora9c714.53$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Falcons53c666$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.3620145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Falcons52c658.5$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0844645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3251,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora30c623.38$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Falcons51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29474549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons62c600$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.211,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Falcons47c598.85$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons61c586.92$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.41,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons51c569.54$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.591,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Falcons63c557$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.8456548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons47c549.3$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.1329548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Aurora37c543.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe37e…6d97backed Team Falcons63c511.44$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.346163.9%39 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora37c500.44$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.162,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Falcons65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17521264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13039660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora52c491.13$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.3917146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8be…3d54backed Aurora46c480$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.89951.5%51 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora45c444.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora36c433.49$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.061,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b0…2aaebacked Team Falcons58c431.44$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.442352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Aurora39c417.95$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16321144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Falcons51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1639550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Falcons73c384.49$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5853139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xde5c…7428backed Aurora19c350$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.55630.4%17 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked Team Falcons59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9819849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Aurora26c336.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.991,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons58c308.85$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7245061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f41…b387backed Team Falcons50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Aurora41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12312136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x836c…acffbacked Team Falcons62c266.42$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.671662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Aurora26c258.83$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.221,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Falcons46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora8c249.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9440014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Team Falcons49c240.73$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7330041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf062…0257backed Team Falcons65c229.83$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.835131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora9c222.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0557654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Falcons75c203.56$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8979859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Aurora9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188918%16 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Team Falcons62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7642053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Aurora54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Aurora54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons54c178$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0889938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf93e…96eabacked Team Falcons61c164.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.382055%11 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd97…a2c9backed Team Falcons55c155$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.751553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e6…eca0backed Aurora35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.55461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Team Falcons63c149.98$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4960251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Aurora20c144.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.571,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Falcons47c140$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.258250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Aurora28c137$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0568345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons64c132$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.321,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Aurora42c121.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0336343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Falcons53c118.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.151,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Aurora15c111$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6535430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Team Falcons66c110.63$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5216242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Team Falcons51c107.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8454648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked Aurora10c103.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0116932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5126846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Team Falcons50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5018248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Team Falcons57c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.54738.3%18 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked Team Falcons50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5017636.9%65 W · 111 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.