Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ddacf2b1125b5dd9c8c0af3b2a5a5cf0420ff4352cfa6f82accb3ba55f2ab1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora | 53c | 21,111$11,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,188.83 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,600 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…40dfbacked Aurora | 34c | 9,597$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 46c | 7,126$3,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,264.68 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 5,549$3,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.89 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Aurora | 49c | 5,048$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Aurora | 48c | 4,652$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.74 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 3,645$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.99 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 38c | 3,491$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.66 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked Aurora | 34c | 3,347$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Aurora | 46c | 3,297$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 26c | 2,471$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.4 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons | 61c | 2,228$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.82 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Aurora | 28c | 2,210$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.39 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons | 64c | 2,000$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.14 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons | 72c | 1,784$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.03 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons | 66c | 1,401$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.81 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons | 67c | 1,278$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.94 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Aurora | 40c | 1,244$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Team Falcons | 50c | 1,170$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Team Falcons | 61c | 1,079$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.18 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed Aurora | 54c | 1,015$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons | 54c | 999.98$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 986.81$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.15 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Team Falcons | 58c | 950$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Aurora | 54c | 920.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.5 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora | 7c | 899.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 893.64$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.42 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Falcons | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…7491backed Team Falcons | 62c | 788.46$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.87 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons | 50c | 769.61$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.61 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Team Falcons | 70c | 750$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 750$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Aurora | 15c | 725.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 9c | 714.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Falcons | 53c | 666$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.36 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Team Falcons | 52c | 658.5$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.08 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora | 30c | 623.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Falcons | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons | 62c | 600$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.21 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 598.85$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.28 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons | 61c | 586.92$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.4 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 569.54$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.59 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Falcons | 63c | 557$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.84 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 549.3$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.13 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Aurora | 37c | 543.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…6d97backed Team Falcons | 63c | 511.44$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.34 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 37c | 500.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.16 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Team Falcons | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora | 52c | 491.13$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.39 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…3d54backed Aurora | 46c | 480$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora | 45c | 444.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 36c | 433.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.06 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…2aaebacked Team Falcons | 58c | 431.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Aurora | 39c | 417.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 395 | 50.1%198 W · 197 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 384.49$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde5c…7428backed Aurora | 19c | 350$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…7f5bbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Aurora | 26c | 336.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons | 58c | 308.85$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Team Falcons | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Aurora | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x836c…acffbacked Team Falcons | 62c | 266.42$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Aurora | 26c | 258.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Team Falcons | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 8c | 249.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Team Falcons | 49c | 240.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…0257backed Team Falcons | 65c | 229.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 9c | 222.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 203.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Aurora | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Team Falcons | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Aurora | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Aurora | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 178$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked Team Falcons | 61c | 164.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…a2c9backed Team Falcons | 55c | 155$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…eca0backed Aurora | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Team Falcons | 63c | 149.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Aurora | 20c | 144.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Aurora | 28c | 137$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 132$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Aurora | 42c | 121.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Falcons | 53c | 118.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Aurora | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Team Falcons | 66c | 110.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Falcons | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…c05fbacked Aurora | 10c | 103.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 169 | 32.5%55 W · 114 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Team Falcons | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Team Falcons | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Team Falcons | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Team Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.