Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a06bbac669fd43aec235b8fc56292c1ceeb556bc7893d169bc50971e76b3f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $287,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons | 52c | 30,947$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,947 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 38c | 27,465$10,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,311.51 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 35c | 12,009$4,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,205.82 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 42c | 11,669$4,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,853.25 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 36c | 10,612$3,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,798.93 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Aurora | 48c | 8,888$4,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,266.23 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons | 60c | 6,933$4,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.39 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora | 48c | 6,734$3,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,236.75 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Aurora | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Aurora | 40c | 4,990$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.82 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Team Falcons | 56c | 4,611$2,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.09 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons | 65c | 4,544$2,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.27 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons | 59c | 4,500$2,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.51 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons | 52c | 4,422$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,121.92 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Team Falcons | 71c | 4,227$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.23 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons | 60c | 4,019$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.94 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Falcons | 78c | 3,990$3,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.47 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Falcons | 63c | 3,356$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.36 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…80d0backed Team Falcons | 66c | 3,201$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.57 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora | 28c | 2,677$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.7 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Aurora | 40c | 2,500$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.16 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Team Falcons | 76c | 2,440$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.63 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 32c | 2,324$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.46 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Aurora | 32c | 2,262$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.55 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883d…3627backed Aurora | 47c | 2,186$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Aurora | 47c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.99 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons | 68c | 1,951$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.31 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Team Falcons | 75c | 1,795$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.49 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 24c | 1,639$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.31 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Aurora | 35c | 1,561$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.39 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons | 58c | 1,464$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.47 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…dd89backed Aurora | 33c | 1,424$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.78 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Falcons | 67c | 1,421$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.29 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons | 65c | 1,400$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.89 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Team Falcons | 53c | 1,370$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.8 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Team Falcons | 60c | 1,339$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.75 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 1,315$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.88 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Aurora | 39c | 1,286$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Falcons | 76c | 1,243$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.38 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 50c | 1,240$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.95 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Team Falcons | 50c | 1,170$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Falcons | 68c | 1,165$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.27 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 28c | 1,158$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.73 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 43c | 1,056$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.87 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Team Falcons | 72c | 1,040$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.24 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 41c | 1,014$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Team Falcons | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…ce53backed Aurora | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Team Falcons | 60c | 999.33$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.73 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…cc95backed Aurora | 40c | 950$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Team Falcons | 56c | 890.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.46 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora | 49c | 863.14$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.31 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 846$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 845.57$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.46 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe110…ade6backed Aurora | 46c | 844.92$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Aurora | 44c | 779.7$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.07 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Aurora | 32c | 773.45$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aurora | 40c | 692.39$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.34 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Aurora | 32c | 631.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora | 42c | 627.83$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.47 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team Falcons | 58c | 601.31$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.31 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Falcons | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Aurora | 18c | 599$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Aurora | 48c | 557.27$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.89 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 27c | 542.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.89 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Team Falcons | 60c | 521.53$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.07 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…2aaebacked Team Falcons | 73c | 517.48$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…922bbacked Aurora | 52c | 515.03$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.88 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 499.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 438.66$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.13 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 438.21$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.21 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Aurora | 36c | 435.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Team Falcons | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Aurora | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Team Falcons | 69c | 391.3$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…8313backed Aurora | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…a2c9backed Team Falcons | 52c | 358.62$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora | 21c | 356$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Falcons | 62c | 348.12$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.29 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Aurora | 39c | 347.35$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Aurora | 38c | 340$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Aurora | 27c | 336$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 62c | 311.32$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Aurora | 18c | 294.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Aurora | 39c | 286.45$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…bac9backed Team Falcons | 52c | 278.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 51c | 270$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Aurora | 36c | 265.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 39c | 265.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons | 69c | 264.91$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed Aurora | 41c | 262.68$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Aurora | 48c | 261.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c1…8174backed Team Falcons | 52c | 257.08$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 249 | 47.8%119 W · 130 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Team Falcons | 67c | 256.9$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Team Falcons | 60c | 250$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Team Falcons | 70c | 249.82$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Aurora | 28c | 244.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…d567backed Aurora | 37c | 232.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Team Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.