NHL · resolved market
Spread: Utah (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df9981f6b89639e57f3586c724526a172b002023e3a0117005e6f82795ea608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Utah, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,079 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Flyers | 71c | 4,223$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Utah | 30c | 3,332$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.94 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7837…40f1backed Flyers | 70c | 1,679$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Utah | 30c | 1,667$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.27 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…16fbbacked Flyers | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Utah | 29c | 796$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.16 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Utah | 29c | 671.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.05 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Utah | 33c | 429.3$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.63 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Utah | 30c | 385.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.07 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Utah | 32c | 218.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Utah | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flyers | 67c | 178.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Utah | 49c | 176$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Flyers | 67c | 173.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Flyers | 70c | 171.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 70c | 114.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked Flyers | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Flyers | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Flyers | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Flyers | 69c | 86.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…f12abacked Utah | 30c | 86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Flyers | 70c | 86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Utah | 30c | 82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Utah | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Flyers | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Utah | 30c | 44.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Flyers | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Utah | 31c | 33.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Utah | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Utah | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Flyers | 68c | 23.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Flyers | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa473…b643backed Flyers | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)this page
- Utah vs. FlyersUtah won
- Utah vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Utah vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Utah vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Utah vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.