F1 · resolved market
Verstappen vs. Russell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e3dba1e2c890eda8c75d596a0550f388c4bdde3ef5f035229779e4cec066c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Verstappenof Verstappen, Russell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x805a…0635backed Russell | 15c | 676.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Russell | 6c | 319.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Russell | 14c | 250.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Russell | 7c | 167.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…f6e5backed Verstappen | 75c | 151.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Verstappen | 80c | 122.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…d429backed Russell | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…b328backed Russell | 36c | 82.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Russell | 14c | 80.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Verstappen | 79c | 79.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Russell | 33c | 61.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Verstappen | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed Verstappen | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…0da5backed Russell | 39c | 41.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Verstappen | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…0be9backed Verstappen | 62c | 21.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…66a5backed Verstappen | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Verstappen vs. Russellthis page
- Alonso vs. StrollStroll won
- Hamilton vs. Leclerc Leclerc won
- Norris vs. PiastriNorris won
- Sainz vs. AlbonAlbon won
- Tsunoda vs. HadjarHadjar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.