F1 · resolved market
Sainz vs. Albon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a3648d7760a34a6b8b3b0ea3f9a8783475bd07cf8acba7a2db6812f4dfd4a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Albon of Sainz , Albon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf62c…1659backed Albon | 66c | 57,156$37,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,433.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f01…f12abacked Sainz | 34c | 57,156$19,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,433.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f0cbbacked Sainz | 48c | 39,278$18,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,853.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d89…25cdbacked Albon | 52c | 39,278$20,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,853.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sainz | 49c | 1,004$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.51 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Albon | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Albon | 66c | 869.65$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.01 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Albon | 47c | 449.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sainz | 52c | 381.56$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Sainz | 21c | 324.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4036backed Albon | 78c | 254.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Sainz | 54c | 230$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Albon | 79c | 213.54$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Sainz | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Sainz | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Albon | 56c | 160.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Albon | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Sainz | 47c | 95.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Albon | 65c | 92.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Sainz | 39c | 89.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…0da5backed Albon | 61c | 86.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sainz | 34c | 73.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…0f47backed Sainz | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b1b2backed Sainz | 39c | 64.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…0eddbacked Sainz | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed Albon | 50c | 57.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Sainz | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Sainz | 48c | 44.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…1940backed Albon | 68c | 26.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…819dbacked Albon | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Albon | 64c | 22.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab9…5f7abacked Albon | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5103…9fdcbacked Sainz | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sainz vs. Albonthis page
- Alonso vs. StrollStroll won
- Hamilton vs. Leclerc Leclerc won
- Norris vs. PiastriNorris won
- Tsunoda vs. HadjarHadjar won
- Verstappen vs. RussellVerstappen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.