F1 · resolved market
Norris vs. Piastri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab2f99e3c1912a3d0d935b78cb6fa88f5808280ad18d9a00d298bf40c505a0a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norris of Norris , Piastri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3775…6a6abacked Piastri | 25c | 51,808$12,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,952 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…1659backed Norris | 75c | 51,808$38,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,952 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…33e5backed Piastri | 55c | 27,268$14,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,997.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…8931backed Norris | 45c | 27,268$12,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,997.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Norris | 46c | 1,863$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.33 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Piastri | 54c | 1,240$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.03 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…7a1dbacked Piastri | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a91…9e12backed Norris | 42c | 965$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Norris | 46c | 913.95$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.67 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Norris | 73c | 760.96$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed Piastri | 23c | 459.03$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Piastri | 55c | 395$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4036backed Norris | 79c | 316.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Norris | 48c | 202.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Piastri | 52c | 201.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef6f…084bbacked Piastri | 35c | 199.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Norris | 48c | 198.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Piastri | 54c | 184.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Piastri | 57c | 174.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Norris | 70c | 146.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Piastri | 29c | 110.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…49acbacked Piastri | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Piastri | 21c | 88.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…8de3backed Norris | 52c | 78.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…205bbacked Norris | 79c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…2a15backed Piastri | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Piastri | 55c | 52.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Norris | 79c | 50.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Piastri | 60c | 50.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Piastri | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…245abacked Piastri | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Norris | 68c | 48.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Piastri | 50c | 45.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Norris | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Piastri | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…74ebbacked Norris | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…1622backed Norris | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Norris | 57c | 33.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Norris | 72c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0929…caaebacked Piastri | 60c | 25.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norris vs. Piastrithis page
- Alonso vs. StrollStroll won
- Hamilton vs. Leclerc Leclerc won
- Sainz vs. AlbonAlbon won
- Tsunoda vs. HadjarHadjar won
- Verstappen vs. RussellVerstappen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.