F1 · resolved market
Alonso vs. Stroll
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7590b22ca4f1d2f0ec561aebaeb9738fffb1753fa79906db50e9f5385b9d2b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Strollof Alonso, Stroll
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a39…e798backed Alonso | 75c | 47,456$35,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,592 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…8931backed Stroll | 25c | 47,456$11,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,592 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Alonso | 11c | 2,588$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.24 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Alonso | 2c | 1,230$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…bee7backed Alonso | 73c | 898.52$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Stroll | 27c | 718.57$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.78 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Stroll | 10c | 448.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.08 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Stroll | 23c | 407.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.03 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Stroll | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Stroll | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Alonso | 71c | 181.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…0da5backed Stroll | 34c | 160.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Alonso | 78c | 149.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Stroll | 22c | 110.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Stroll | 29c | 101.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Stroll | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Stroll | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stroll | 23c | 99.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…8c7abacked Alonso | 78c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Alonso | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Alonso | 77c | 59.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Alonso | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Alonso | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07be…8bf9backed Alonso | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8274…c499backed Stroll | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Alonso | 78c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked Alonso | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…72efbacked Alonso | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Alonso | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Alonso | 77c | 20.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd694…6488backed Alonso | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd6…8f44backed Alonso | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alonso vs. Strollthis page
- Hamilton vs. Leclerc Leclerc won
- Norris vs. PiastriNorris won
- Sainz vs. AlbonAlbon won
- Tsunoda vs. HadjarHadjar won
- Verstappen vs. RussellVerstappen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.