MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e69bfa7b1a5701a49bfcfa0988f7947382880c2b8b7cf98035e7e68c032a08c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 35,535$18,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,807.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 22,615$11,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,057.26 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,120 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 11,657$5,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,676.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 59c | 8,790$5,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,197.04 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 6,101$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 5,689$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,981.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 4,159$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.19 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 3,872$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.92 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 2,611$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 51c | 2,116$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.84 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 1,435$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 50c | 1,156$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.98 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 1,102$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.98 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 1,091$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 1,063$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.14 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 994.88$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 51c | 953.06$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 755.21$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 51c | 623$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.27 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 589.79$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.69 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 51c | 580.75$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.57 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 50c | 496.32$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.16 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 48c | 457.88$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 49c | 304.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 229$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…3e4dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 65c | 107.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…4807backed Over | 43c | 93.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 42c | 90.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 69c | 90.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…ec12backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 25c | 67.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 53c | 65.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 61.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 58c | 61.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…29a8backed Over | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 45c | 46.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 26c | 46.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…0f4cbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Over | 44c | 35.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 31c | 35.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 51c | 32.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 43c | 28.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Under | 45c | 22.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 51c | 21.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 52c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.