Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e6f5a40b2358064ae3c937717191780dee6cb0f290f86624fda2dadd6c91c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 8c | 1,585$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 11c | 698.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…5b2dbacked Over | 77c | 617.44$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 78c | 567.98$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.41 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 23c | 518.85$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 21c | 515.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 315 | 53%167 W · 148 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…1b84backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 21c | 240.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 13c | 144.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 190 | 38.9%74 W · 116 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 21c | 136.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 75c | 133.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 205 | 60%123 W · 82 L | +17.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…ffd7backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 66 | 71.2%47 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…1ff8backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…c691backed Over | 80c | 80.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 87 | 73.6%64 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…d90dbacked Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce3…c36cbacked Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 79c | 57.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 79c | 47.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 79c | 41.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 80c | 24.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Over | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…18dcbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…f1acbacked Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…4ebdbacked Over | 76c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…3ee1backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5this page
- Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Serbia (-1.5)Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.