Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644eb23ea079ebe034963b7d27788aafc0cc380592854393e4ea7f0436beb6e3

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Mexicoof Mexico, Serbia
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,771 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Mexico	24c	6,043$1,455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,588.08	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Serbia	74c	5,378$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	202	62.4%126 W · 76 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Serbia	77c	3,917$3,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,017.22	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mexico	27c	2,942$784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,158.04	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24f…d0a8backed Serbia	65c	2,427$1,572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,571.51	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+19%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Serbia	62c	1,820$1,129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,129.23	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mexico	10c	1,386$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,247.47	1,559	52.4%817 W · 742 L	+97.8wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Mexico	27c	1,111$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$811.11	894	43.4%388 W · 506 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Serbia	77c	1,003$770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.67	184	65.8%121 W · 63 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Serbia	70c	651.55$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.5	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6569…a053backed Mexico	10c	625.96$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$563.36	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Serbia	71c	603.33$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.33	235	40.4%95 W · 140 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Serbia	73c	600$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.5	140	51.4%72 W · 68 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Mexico	27c	591.24$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432.55	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5353…51b9backed Mexico	28c	403.57$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.57	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	+5.6wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Mexico	21c	308.64$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.8	175	35.4%62 W · 113 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Mexico	31c	295$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Mexico	27c	240$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.4	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Serbia	70c	201$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.38	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Mexico	27c	199.99$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.99	1,204	48.9%589 W · 615 L	+18.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Serbia	73c	199.97$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.98	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe569…e759backed Mexico	27c	185.19$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.19	524	41.4%217 W · 307 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf5…6db3backed Serbia	73c	180.41$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	72cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Mexico	28c	172.28$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.04	199	35.2%70 W · 129 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Serbia	58c	160.42$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.35	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Mexico	49c	153.22$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.22	551	53%292 W · 259 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Mexico	26c	150$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.5	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Serbia	73c	136.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	396	48.7%193 W · 203 L	-23.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Serbia	73c	135.99$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.28	55	63.6%35 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Mexico	28c	135.01$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.84	244	48.4%118 W · 126 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9565…ec9abacked Serbia	23c	126.61$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.3	190	38.9%74 W · 116 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Mexico	43c	122.6$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.36	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Serbia	70c	121.68$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.61	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Mexico	17c	120.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.26	88	17%15 W · 73 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe465…7f38backed Mexico	24c	116$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.16	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…cd3cbacked Serbia	52c	113$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.68	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Mexico	12c	112.73$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.75	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+138.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d82…e950backed Mexico	27c	111.11$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.11	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Mexico	28c	107.14$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.14	283	26.1%74 W · 209 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe8…3f2cbacked Mexico	30c	102$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	39cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x392b…f9a5backed Serbia	72c	102$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.44	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d06…7910backed Mexico	49c	99.34$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.66	143	43.4%62 W · 81 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Serbia	74c	94.89$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.91	166	59.6%99 W · 67 L	-9.8wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Serbia	71c	91.55$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	63	73%46 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	74cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Serbia	72c	87.47$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.98	815	54.8%447 W · 368 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Mexico	24c	83$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.08	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Mexico	31c	80.16$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.31	203	30.5%62 W · 141 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Mexico	24c	79.88$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.71	370	51.4%190 W · 180 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92c…a387backed Mexico	27c	74.07$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.07	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Mexico	27c	73$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.29	413	44.1%182 W · 231 L	-16.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ce…fd49backed Serbia	71c	70.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74a3…3b73backed Serbia	71c	63.38$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-5.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Mexico	27c	62.96$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.96	195	40%78 W · 117 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Mexico	28c	39.29$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.29	311	47.9%149 W · 162 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Mexico	29c	36.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.26	266	31.2%83 W · 183 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Mexico	42c	27.24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.8	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19cc…ddbabacked Serbia	74c	25.96$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.21	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	75cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Serbia	73c	25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.25	548	59.5%326 W · 222 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Serbia	72c	18.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	831	53.3%443 W · 388 L	+15.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Serbia	74c	17.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	187	64.2%120 W · 67 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Serbia	79c	12.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,459	53.9%787 W · 672 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)this page
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5Over won
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5Over won
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5Over won
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5Over won
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
Spread: Serbia (-1.5)Mexico won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event