NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb2c5f10663edca0b5457b89236452df96f0c23da6b7d63b13c2599b7685cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 1,562$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.5 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 1,395$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.41 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Over | 24c | 1,202$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.29 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 683.2$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.92 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 673.16$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.79 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 4c | 650.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 43c | 540.52$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.1 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 44c | 443.55$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.32 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Under | 43c | 443.37$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.72 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 58c | 420.17$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 43c | 353.69$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 65c | 319.34$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…1ce7backed Under | 80c | 240.83$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 23c | 238.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…78edbacked Over | 58c | 236.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 19c | 218.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 23c | 212.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…d274backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 9c | 194.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 189.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…bd05backed Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Over | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Over | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 158.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Over | 60c | 146.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Under | 43c | 140.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Over | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 40c | 125.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Over | 57c | 116.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Under | 48c | 87.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 86.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Over | 23c | 85.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 43c | 81.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Under | 43c | 81.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…7b9dbacked Under | 43c | 75.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…b138backed Under | 45c | 72.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 57c | 68.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Over | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Over | 23c | 61.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Under | 72c | 58.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…324fbacked Over | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Under | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…6886backed Under | 45c | 43.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…18c6backed Under | 55c | 43.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Under | 46c | 43.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…7e42backed Under | 44c | 43.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 43c | 43.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Under | 43c | 43.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 44c | 36.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 56c | 32.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 58c | 30.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 29.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 58c | 29.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 43c | 28.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 40c | 27.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d20bbacked Under | 73c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 43c | 24.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 58c | 23.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 72c | 22.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 74c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 59c | 19.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…39b6backed Over | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 78c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.