NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24797591d59e92e933f76ad3a0e61dfa147fd86ad7e466b972b0735a055b98b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Penguins, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Penguins | 20c | 2,449$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.18 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flyers | 64c | 2,220$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flyers | 80c | 2,087$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.79 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Penguins | 36c | 1,792$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc645…e8bbbacked Penguins | 36c | 1,329$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.48 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Flyers | 58c | 969.93$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.37 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Penguins | 36c | 788.16$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.74 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…40cfbacked Penguins | 42c | 787.08$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Flyers | 64c | 634.65$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.47 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Flyers | 78c | 565.46$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.88 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Flyers | 77c | 551.56$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.34 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Flyers | 65c | 548.24$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.88 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flyers | 77c | 518.09$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Flyers | 64c | 516.19$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Penguins | 14c | 371.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Flyers | 65c | 343$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Penguins | 31c | 226.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Penguins | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Penguins | 35c | 175.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Penguins | 35c | 130.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Penguins | 20c | 121.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Penguins | 36c | 120.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Penguins | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Penguins | 26c | 115.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Flyers | 65c | 114.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Penguins | 16c | 113.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 170 | 57.1%97 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Flyers | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Flyers | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Flyers | 64c | 90.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Penguins | 23c | 88.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Flyers | 80c | 72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Flyers | 64c | 64.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Penguins | 23c | 63.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…bb7ebacked Penguins | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Penguins | 28c | 57.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Penguins | 26c | 57.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Penguins | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…59e4backed Penguins | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Penguins | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…d5a3backed Flyers | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Penguins | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Flyers | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Flyers | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Flyers | 64c | 47.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Flyers | 64c | 33.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Flyers | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Flyers | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 67c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Flyers | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flyers | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Flyers | 65c | 19.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.