NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x659b2ab91a8358935cd67a2ea366205dd2abfee8926dd9ff430ae1184361715a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x987a…40cfbacked Over | 47c | 795.78$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 743.03$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.23 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Over | 47c | 715.33$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.95 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 54c | 668.93$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.71 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 511.77$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.37 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed Over | 47c | 502.64$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.24 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 48c | 407.58$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.7 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 390.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.72 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 351.18$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 323.01$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 38c | 313.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…e5b3backed Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 195.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…74b5backed Over | 47c | 191.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…be0dbacked Under | 55c | 180.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 164.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 151.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 8c | 147.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6eca…87dabacked Over | 47c | 125.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Under | 55c | 117.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…7e42backed Over | 47c | 87.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 62c | 76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…5568backed Over | 47c | 72.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Over | 48c | 67.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 63c | 65.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 31c | 65.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 59.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Over | 47c | 55.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 27c | 47.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…b138backed Over | 47c | 43.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…6886backed Over | 47c | 43.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 61c | 36.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 54c | 35.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 48c | 33.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…164cbacked Under | 53c | 32.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Over | 48c | 29.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…930ebacked Over | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Under | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…13ebbacked Over | 47c | 23.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Over | 48c | 23.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 55c | 23.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…bf01backed Over | 47c | 21.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.