NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x958b7222b984d9716de65032f62dd8e74d7319aa602a4770cff2a9aa7da4cea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 49c | 19,920$9,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,760.69 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 51c | 19,426$9,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,518.74 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 2,058$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.52 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 50c | 1,896$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.12 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Under | 46c | 1,189$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.04 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 29c | 700.82$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.58 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 49c | 664.91$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.25 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 50c | 582.7$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 53c | 525.85$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.34 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 465.89$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.3 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 23c | 423.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 46c | 421.88$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 12c | 328.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 67c | 294.7$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 61c | 294.28$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 42c | 265.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 19c | 260.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Under | 65c | 214.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 206.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 51c | 197.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 53c | 140.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 64c | 120.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Under | 57c | 117.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 49c | 112.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Over | 66c | 108.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 67c | 107.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 61c | 106.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 68c | 106.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 69c | 104.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Over | 52c | 96.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 50c | 92.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 54c | 87.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 31c | 84.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 21c | 80.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 76.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 73.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…e923backed Under | 66c | 65.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 25c | 63.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 41c | 59.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Over | 77c | 59.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 58.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 57c | 57.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 45c | 56.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 55.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Over | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Over | 52c | 47.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…39babacked Under | 68c | 45.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 41c | 36.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…6886backed Over | 68c | 34.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 56c | 33.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…18c6backed Over | 68c | 33.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 59c | 32.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 52c | 32.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Over | 52c | 31.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 44c | 30.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…7e42backed Over | 77c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 53c | 29.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 52c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 65c | 28.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 55c | 25.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Over | 67c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Over | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Under | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 54c | 21.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bb…e1c5backed Under | 49c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Under | 49c | 20.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.